The year 2025 marks a crucial juncture for advancing sustainable, low-carbon transport. Countries are expected to submit updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) with enhanced 2035 targets, referred to here as third-generation NDCs*. These submissions offer a vital opportunity to accelerate climate action in transport, aligning with national strategies and coordinating efforts across governance levels and sectors. This summary analysis outlines findings from the first 21 third-generation NDCs submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), as of 15 April 2025.
| For information on the background of this project, please refer to this page. We encourage you to use the NDC Transport Tracker for your own work and research. You can easily work with the Excel file which contains all information of this database and analysis sheets. Find relevant instructions in this how-to use guide. Key insights and good practices of the second-generation NDCs can be retrieved here. |
As of April 2025, 21 third-generation NDCs had been submitted. These submissions to date were equally distributed per region and accounted for 35.6% of global transport emissions (excluding international aviation and shipping). All submissions came from middle- and high-income countries, with no low-income countries represented. Zambia’s submission represents a third-generation NDC from a Least Developed Country.
Progress on targets in newest NDCs
The inclusion of transport targets has grown with each NDC cycle. While fewer than 25% of first-generation NDCs included transport targets, this rose to 46% in second-generation and 53% in third-generation submissions. Six third-generation NDCs feature transport-specific greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation targets, with Switzerland demonstrating good practice by setting phased targets towards full decarbonisation by 2050. In addition, 17 non-GHG targets were identified, most of which focused on zero-emission vehicles (47% of all non-GHG transport targets). However, these ambitions often lack corresponding commitments to renewable energy, limiting the potential benefits of electrification.
Table: Transport greenhouse gas emission mitigation targets in country’s third-generation NDCs
| Country | Targeted reductions in transport emissions | Type of target |
|---|---|---|
| Andorra | 50% in domestic transport emissions by 2030 | Unclear conditionality |
| Botswana | 429 Gg CO2eq by 2030 (of which 146.78 Gg are conditional) | Unconditional, conditional |
| Marshall Islands | 40% below 2010 levels in domestic shipping emissions by 2030 and complete decarbonisation by 2050 | Unclear conditionality |
| Saint Lucia | 22% by 2035 in emissions of transport and energy | Unconditional |
| Switzerland | 41% below 1990 levels by 2035, 57% through 2040 and 100% by 2050 | Unconditional |
| United Arab Emirates | 20% below 2019 levels by 2035, reaching 24.2 million tonnes CO2e | Unconditional |
NDCs embrace a wider portfolio of transport mitigation actions but put a strong focus on electrification
There is a clear shift towards a broader portfolio of mitigation actions. On average, third-generation NDCs include 8.2 transport-related measures, compared to 5.8 in the previous generation. Electrification and demand management each account for 30.2% of these measures. Aviation and maritime transport (as a mitigation purpose) remain significantly underrepresented, making up only 4.7% of mitigation actions. The NDC by the United Arab Emirates provides a good practice, outlining policies to electrify public and private transport and expand charging infrastructure.
Climate actions on transport mostly point towards road vehicles
An assessment of transport modes referenced in third-generation NDCs showed that road transport was the most frequently mentioned. However, most of both adaptation and mitigation actions did not explicitly reference any specific mode of transport. Adaptation actions referred to specific transport modes far less often than mitigation actions, indicating a more superficial and less targeted approach in transport adaptation planning.
Actions on adaptation and resilience remained limited
No third-generation NDC contains adaptation targets specific to transport, though nearly half include some form of adaptation action. These are largely structural and technical in nature, reflecting continuity with the second generation of NDCs. Lesotho’s submission stands out for its detailed adaptation actions, including climate-proofing roads and improving flood control infrastructure.
The full potential of a balanced Avoid–Shift–Improve approach remains untapped
The continued dominance of ‘Improve’ strategies within the Avoid–Shift–Improve (ASI) framework suggests missed opportunities for transformative change. ‘Improve’ measures comprise 65.1% of mitigation actions, while only 11% address the ‘Avoid’ pillar. Singapore’s approach to active mobility and public transport investments is a strong example of a more balanced strategy.
Freight emissions growth continues unabated
Freight transport remains a major gap. Despite its growing emissions footprint, it is largely absent from NDC adaptation measures and only marginally present in mitigation strategies. Similarly, few NDCs address aviation and shipping, with only Canada, the Marshall Islands, the UK and the US referencing these sectors. The Marshall Islands, however, sets an ambitious domestic shipping target and promotes innovative technologies like wind-assisted propulsion.
Stay tuned for the first insights on transport in new NDCs
The first insights about transport in NDCs 3.0 will be released in May 2025, stay tuned! If you have any questions, or would like to share how you used the data, please contact Nikola Medimorec at nikola.medimorec@slocatpartnership.org or María Belén Vásquez at maria.vasquez1@giz.de.
* We regard any NDC submission since October 2024 as part of the third-generation NDCs, regardless of the document title or version number. Thus, the findings might differ from other NDC 3.0 trackers.
Resources on transport in NDCs
Third-generation NDCs (publications since 2024):
- Five Recommendations to Raise Ambition for Transport in NDCs
- Enhancing Ambition and Transparency in the Next Round of NDCs
- Guide to Integrating Transport into NDCs
- Active Travel NDC Template
- Global Popular Transport NDC Template
- Public Transport NDCs Template
- Rail NDC Template
Second-generation NDCs (publications from 2022/23):
- Climate Strategies for Transport: An Analysis of Nationally Determined Contributions and Long-Term Strategies
- Key Insights About Transport’s Role in National Climate Plans
- SLOCAT Transport, Climate and Sustainability Global Status Report 3rd Edition
First-generation NDCs (publications from 2016-18):
- Transport in the first generation of NDCs
- GIZ’s 2017 Transport in NDCs report
- SLOCAT Transport and Climate Change Global Status Report – 1st Edition
- GIZ’s Six Action Recommendations
