COP29’s Impact on the Transport Sector – an Analysis

Interview with Daniel Bongardt, Head of GIZ’s Team Infrastructure and Mobility in Bonn

Without a clear mandate to transition the transport sector, progress will remain slow.

Daniel Bongardt

GIZ is engaging to support developing countries with respect to sustainable development.  Daniel Bongardt is heading GIZ’s transport team and observing climate conferences since 2009. He is an expert on transport decarbonisation and responsible for the implementation of projects from Germany’s International Climate Initiative (IKI).

Changing Transport: COP29 concluded with mixed results. What were the key outcomes, and why do you think many in the climate community felt underwhelmed? 

While there was some progress, such as agreements on emissions trading procedures under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, critical areas such as scaling up climate finance, achieving substantial emissions reductions and advancing adaptation strategies fell short. These are crucial for sectors such as transport, which is responsible for 16% of global greenhouse gas emissions. This share is growing, especially as motorisation increases in developing countries, and there are no signs of a turnaround.

Let’s talk about climate finance. The new target of $300 billion annually for climate financing dissatisfied many negotiators, especially from the Global South. What is the context in which this figure needs to be understood?

While the increase from the previous target of $100 billion is a step forward, it is far from the $1.3 trillion per year by 2035 that developing nations say they need. This gap is particularly glaring when you consider the investment needed for sustainable transport systems – such as public transport, cycling infrastructure, and electrification. While there is talk of private investment and contributions from emerging economies, it’s not enough, and the mechanisms to achieve this funding are still unclear.

How could the transport sector itself contribute?

One of the innovative sources of funding discussed could be a levy on international aviation or shipping. This would discourage long-distance travel, but at the same time would raise resources independently of individual contributions from countries. However, it is unlikely that countries would agree to such a mechanism, and aviation and maritime organisations are strong and lobby against such approaches.

The fossil fuel lobby was strong at COP29. How does this impact the transport sector in particular?

Unfortunately, transport was largely sidelined in the mitigation discussions. There is no more  emphasis in the text on phasing out fossil fuels, which is crucial for decarbonising transport. While some countries like Saudi Arabia resisted this language, the Azerbaijani presidency did not push for greater ambition. Without a clear mandate to transition the transport sector, progress will remain slow.

Were there any bright spots for transport at COP29?

Yes, there were some promising developments. For example, Chile’s Minister of Transport actively called for more ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the inclusion of sectoral language at COP30 in Brazil. In addition, guidance on incorporating transport in NDCs was released, and the Climate Champions launched the 2030 Avoid and Shift Breakthrough, which aims to double the share of energy efficient and fossil-free land transport by 2030. These steps are encouraging but need to be integrated into the official negotiations to have a lasting impact.

Speaking of NDCs, what role do they play in the transport sector’s transformation?

NDCs are essentially roadmaps for each country’s climate goals, so theyare critical. While some countries, such as the UK and Brazil, have announced new targets that are close to the 1.5°C pathway, the majority have not yet. Transport must play a prominent role in updated NDCs, with specific targets for electrification, public transport and emissions reductions. Without this, the sector’s transformation will lag behind. There is still time for transport to feature prominently in NDCs, but time is running out.

You said that there has been some progress on Article 6 trading. Could this mechanism help to decarbonise the transport sector?

In theory, yes, but in practice it is unlikely to be a game changer for transport. The barriers that already affected the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) a decade ago – such as defining robust baselines, the high cost of measuring impact and ensuring accountability – persist. Moreover, the agreed frameworks lack strong safeguards, which risks undermining credibility. Transport projects, while having high co-benefits, often show lower direct emissions reductions, making them less attractive for these mechanisms.

Adaptation was another key area. What did COP29 achieve in terms of making transport systems resilient to climate impacts?

Progress was minimal. The new Baku Adaptation Road Map mentions thematic targets but lacks specifics. Transport systems are increasingly vulnerable to extreme weather, yet funding mechanisms do not reflect the high demand for adaptation. We need investments that are both climate-proof and low-carbon, such as public transit, rail and infrastructure for walking and cycling.

You mentioned the need for greater visibility of the transport sector. What could future COPs do differently?

A dedicated Sustainable Transport Pavilion at COP30 could make a huge difference. Instead of a single Transport Day, we need daily thematic discussions, covering everything from freight decarbonisation to resilient infrastructure. This would showcase the sector’s potential and highlight its importance in achieving the 1.5°C goal.

Finally, what are the key steps to ensure that transport plays a bigger role at COP30 and beyond?

First, countries need to include explicit transport targets in their NDCs. Second, we need a clearer understanding of the sector’s financing needs in developing countries. And third, the UNFCCC needs to give the sector a mandate to phase out fossil fuels. These actions would create the necessary momentum for transformative change in transport.

Thank you for the conversation.

The interview was conducted by Hannah Eberhardt and Carina Bengsch.